Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
SWEAllsvenskan · Matchday 23Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Gamla Ullevi
Gais
10th · 37 pts0–1FULL TIME
Sirius
2nd · 55 pts38% Gais
25% Draw
36% Sirius
OUR PICK
Gais to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.61
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.38
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.61X3.9622.74
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.76NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.76
GG
57%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
GaisSirius1.3Goals per game2.2
1.0Conceded per game1.3
1.37Points per game2.12
37%Win rate65%
7Goal difference22
7Form, last 5 (pts)7
Gais form
WWDLLH AIK Stockholm2–1
A Kalmar FF0–1
H IFK Goteborg1–1
A Orgryte IS4–2
H Sirius0–1
Sirius form
LLDWA Hammarby FF2–0
H AIK Stockholm1–2
H IF Elfsborg2–2
A Gais0–1
Head to head
2
Gais
0
Draw
3
Sirius
Oct 2026Gais – Sirius0–1
May 2026Sirius – Gais2–1
Sept 2025Sirius – Gais3–0
May 2025Gais – Sirius2–1
Nov 2024Gais – Sirius2–1
Allsvenskan table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hammarby FF27+3455
2Sirius26+2255
3Djurgardens IF27+3052
4BK Hacken27+1849
5IF Elfsborg27+1446
6Vasteras SK FK27+244
7Malmo FF27+640
8AIK Stockholm27-438
9IFK Goteborg27-1038
10Gais27+737
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Gais 38%, the draw 25%, Sirius 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.42 for Gais, 1.38 for Sirius), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Gais sit 10th on 37 points; Sirius are 2nd on 55.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.