Over 1.5 goals@1.33
Over 1.5
75%
ENGPremier League · Matchday 10Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Craven Cottage
Fulham
15th · 9 pts16:00KICK-OFF WAT
Newcastle
12th · 11 pts43% Fulham
26% Draw
31% Newcastle
OUR PICK
Fulham to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.30
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.30X3.9123.23
Goals 2.5Over1.98Under1.89
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Over 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.34
12
74%
Season stats
FulhamNewcastle1.0Goals per game1.5
1.2Conceded per game1.8
1.00Points per game1.38
22%Win rate38%
-2Goal difference-2
8Form, last 5 (pts)6
Fulham form
DLWWLA Aston Villa1–1
H Crystal Palace0–1
A Coventry0–1
H Hull City1–0
A Ipswich2–1
Newcastle form
LWLLWA Everton3–1
A Crystal Palace0–2
H Aston Villa0–1
A Coventry4–1
H Hull City2–1
Head to head
3
Fulham
0
Draw
2
Newcastle
May 2026Fulham – Newcastle2–0
Dec 2025Newcastle – Fulham2–1
Oct 2025Newcastle – Fulham2–1
Feb 2025Newcastle – Fulham1–2
Sept 2024Fulham – Newcastle3–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Arsenal9+924
2Manchester City9+1021
3Brighton9+1719
4Chelsea9+416
5Liverpool9+215
6Brentford9+714
7Bournemouth9+112
8Tottenham9012
9Aston Villa9-312
10Hull City9+111
Match preview
Our model makes Fulham slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.30 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.48 for Fulham, 1.21 for Newcastle), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fulham sit 15th on 9 points; Newcastle are 12th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.