Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 7Saturday, 24 October 2026 · MEWA Arena
FSV Mainz 05
9th · 10 pts2–3FULL TIME
Werder Bremen
5th · 15 pts46% FSV
20% Draw
33% Werder
OUR PICK
FSV Mainz 05 to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.15
Expected goals
2.21 – 1.86
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.15X4.9323.01
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen2.1Goals per game2.1
2.1Conceded per game1.8
1.25Points per game1.88
38%Win rate50%
0Goal difference3
6Form, last 5 (pts)11
FSV Mainz 05 form
LLLWLA SV Elversberg4–1
A VfL Bochum2–0
H Werder Bremen2–3
A FC Schalke 040–1
H Bayer Leverkusen3–4
Werder Bremen form
WLWDDH 1899 Hoffenheim2–0
A Borussia Dortmund3–2
A FSV Mainz 052–3
H SC Paderborn 072–2
A Borussia Dortmund2–2
Head to head
1
FSV
1
Draw
3
Werder
Oct 2026FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen2–3
Mar 2026Werder Bremen – FSV Mainz 050–2
Nov 2025FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen1–1
Jan 2025Werder Bremen – FSV Mainz 051–0
Sept 2024FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen1–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.15 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.21 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.86 for Werder Bremen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FSV Mainz 05 sit 9th on 10 points; Werder Bremen are 5th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.