Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
94%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Mewa Arena
FSV Mainz 05
9th · 10 pts15:30KICK-OFF WAT
Bayern München
1st · 18 pts19% FSV
17% Draw
64% Bayern
OUR PICK
Bayern München to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
1.60 – 2.89
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.14X6.0121.57
Goals 2.5Over1.21Under5.24
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.21
Over 2.5
82%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.20
12
83%
Season stats
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München2.1Goals per game3.4
2.1Conceded per game1.0
1.25Points per game2.25
38%Win rate63%
0Goal difference19
6Form, last 5 (pts)11
FSV Mainz 05 form
LLLWLA SV Elversberg4–1
A VfL Bochum2–0
H Werder Bremen2–3
A FC Schalke 040–1
H Bayer Leverkusen3–4
Bayern München form
DWWDWH Borussia Dortmund2–2
H 1. FC Magdeburg6–1
A SC Freiburg1–3
H Arsenal2–2
H RB Leipzig6–1
Head to head
1
FSV
1
Draw
3
Bayern
Apr 2026FSV Mainz 05 – Bayern München3–4
Dec 2025Bayern München – FSV Mainz 052–2
Apr 2025Bayern München – FSV Mainz 053–0
Dec 2024FSV Mainz 05 – Bayern München2–1
Oct 2024FSV Mainz 05 – Bayern München0–4
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes Bayern München clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.5 goals in total (1.60 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.89 for Bayern München), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FSV Mainz 05 sit 9th on 10 points; Bayern München are 1st on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.