Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 5Saturday, 10 October 2026 · MEWA Arena
FSV Mainz 05
9th · 10 pts3–4FULL TIME
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 13 pts48% FSV
20% Draw
31% Bayer
OUR PICK
FSV Mainz 05 to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.07
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.77
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.07X4.9223.20
Goals 2.5Over1.32Under3.93
Both scoreGG1.35NG3.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.32
Over 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.35
GG
74%
Double chance@1.26
12
80%
Season stats
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen2.1Goals per game2.3
2.1Conceded per game2.0
1.25Points per game1.63
38%Win rate50%
0Goal difference2
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
FSV Mainz 05 form
LLLWLA SV Elversberg4–1
A VfL Bochum2–0
H Werder Bremen2–3
A FC Schalke 040–1
H Bayer Leverkusen3–4
Bayer Leverkusen form
LWLWWH VfB Stuttgart2–4
H 1. FC Nürnberg5–2
A 1899 Hoffenheim3–0
A OFI0–2
H SC Freiburg2–1
Head to head
0
FSV
2
Draw
3
Bayer
Oct 2026FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen3–4
Feb 2026Bayer Leverkusen – FSV Mainz 051–1
Oct 2025FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen3–4
May 2025FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer Leverkusen2–2
Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen – FSV Mainz 051–0
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.07 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.22 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.77 for Bayer Leverkusen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FSV Mainz 05 sit 9th on 10 points; Bayer Leverkusen are 6th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.