Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
93%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Friday, 16 October 2026 · PSC Arena
Frosinone
6th · 20 pts4–2FULL TIME
Sassuolo
17th · 8 pts74% Frosinone
14% Draw
12% Sassuolo
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 67% · fair odds
1.50
Expected goals
3.12 – 1.24
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.35X7.2228.37
Goals 2.5Over1.24Under4.97
Both scoreGG1.47NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.24
Over 2.5
81%
Both teams to score@1.47
GG
68%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
FrosinoneSassuolo2.4Goals per game1.6
1.4Conceded per game2.6
2.00Points per game0.80
60%Win rate20%
10Goal difference-10
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
Frosinone form
WWDWLH Torino2–0
H Lecce5–1
A Atalanta4–4
H Sassuolo4–2
A Napoli3–0
Sassuolo form
LLLLDH Fiorentina2–4
H Lazio2–6
A Como2–0
A Frosinone4–2
H AC Milan1–1
Head to head
2
Frosinone
1
Draw
2
Sassuolo
Oct 2026Frosinone – Sassuolo4–2
Sept 2026Sassuolo – Frosinone1–1
May 2025Sassuolo – Frosinone0–1
Dec 2024Frosinone – Sassuolo1–2
Mar 2024Sassuolo – Frosinone1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Frosinone clear favourites, giving them a 74% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.35 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.4 goals in total (3.12 for Frosinone, 1.24 for Sassuolo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Frosinone sit 6th on 20 points; Sassuolo are 17th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.