ITASerie A · Matchday 9Thursday, 29 October 2026 · PSC Arena

Frosinone

6th · 20 pts

5–1FULL TIME

Lecce

14th · 9 pts

67% Frosinone

18% Draw

15% Lecce

OUR PICK

Frosinone to win

Model probability 67% · fair odds

1.50

Expected goals

2.37 – 1.05

Confidence

High

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.50X5.5026.55

Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77

Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.17

Over 1.5

85%

Over/Under 2.5@1.51

Over 2.5

66%

Both teams to score@1.70

59%

Double chance@1.18

85%

Season stats

FrosinoneLecce

2.4Goals per game1.1

1.4Conceded per game2.1

2.00Points per game0.90

60%Win rate30%

10Goal difference-10

10Form, last 5 (pts)3

Frosinone form

WWDWL

H Torino2–0

H Lecce5–1

A Atalanta4–4

H Sassuolo4–2

A Napoli3–0

Lecce form

LLLWL

H Genoa1–2

A Frosinone5–1

H Juventus0–2

A Udinese0–3

H Bologna1–2

Head to head

Frosinone

Draw

Lecce

Oct 2026Frosinone – Lecce5–1

Mar 2024Frosinone – Lecce1–1

Dec 2023Lecce – Frosinone2–1

Apr 2022Lecce – Frosinone1–0

Nov 2021Frosinone – Lecce0–0

Serie A table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Lazio10+1628

2Inter10+1325

3AS Roma10+1824

4Como10+1023

5AC Milan10+921

6Frosinone10+1020

7Juventus10+317

8Napoli10+414

9Bologna10+114

10Torino10-213

Match preview

Our model makes Frosinone clear favourites, giving them a 67% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.37 for Frosinone, 1.05 for Lecce), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Frosinone sit 6th on 20 points; Lecce are 14th on 9.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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