Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard
6th · 19 pts1–1FULL TIME
Twente
4th · 23 pts23% Fortuna
21% Draw
56% Twente
OUR PICK
Twente to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
1.23 – 2.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.41X4.6921.78
Goals 2.5Over1.58Under2.55
Both scoreGG1.62NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.58
Over 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.62
GG
62%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Fortuna SittardTwente1.6Goals per game2.5
1.6Conceded per game0.9
1.73Points per game2.09
45%Win rate64%
0Goal difference18
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Fortuna Sittard form
DDWDDA Feyenoord1–1
A Sparta Rotterdam2–2
H Excelsior1–0
A NEC Nijmegen2–2
H Twente1–1
Twente form
WWWLWA Excelsior0–9
A AZ Alkmaar0–2
A Lincoln Red Imps FC1–4
H Utrecht1–2
H FC Thun1–0
Head to head
0
Fortuna
2
Draw
3
Twente
Oct 2026Fortuna Sittard – Twente1–1
Mar 2026Fortuna Sittard – Twente1–2
Sept 2025Twente – Fortuna Sittard3–2
Apr 2025Twente – Fortuna Sittard1–1
Nov 2024Fortuna Sittard – Twente1–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Twente clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.23 for Fortuna Sittard, 2.04 for Twente), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fortuna Sittard sit 6th on 19 points; Twente are 4th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.