Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 12Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard
6th · 19 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
Telstar
16th · 9 pts56% Fortuna
21% Draw
23% Telstar
OUR PICK
Fortuna Sittard to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.80
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.26
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.80X4.7024.32
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.60NG2.48
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.60
GG
62%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Fortuna SittardTelstar1.6Goals per game1.5
1.6Conceded per game2.1
1.73Points per game0.82
45%Win rate18%
0Goal difference-7
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Fortuna Sittard form
DDWDDA Feyenoord1–1
A Sparta Rotterdam2–2
H Excelsior1–0
A NEC Nijmegen2–2
H Twente1–1
Telstar form
WLLLDH Utrecht4–2
H Almere City FC0–2
A GO Ahead Eagles3–2
H Feyenoord3–4
H ADO Den Haag2–2
Head to head
2
Fortuna
2
Draw
1
Telstar
Mar 2026Fortuna Sittard – Telstar1–4
Sept 2025Telstar – Fortuna Sittard1–3
Feb 2018Fortuna Sittard – Telstar1–1
Sept 2017Telstar – Fortuna Sittard0–6
Jan 2017Fortuna Sittard – Telstar1–1
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Fortuna Sittard clear favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.80 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (2.05 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.26 for Telstar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fortuna Sittard sit 6th on 19 points; Telstar are 16th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.