Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard
6th · 19 pts1–0FULL TIME
Excelsior
12th · 11 pts49% Fortuna
21% Draw
30% Excelsior
OUR PICK
Fortuna Sittard to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.57
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X4.6923.36
Goals 2.5Over1.43Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.43
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
Fortuna SittardExcelsior1.6Goals per game1.6
1.6Conceded per game1.9
1.73Points per game1.10
45%Win rate30%
0Goal difference-3
9Form, last 5 (pts)1
Fortuna Sittard form
DDWDDA Feyenoord1–1
A Sparta Rotterdam2–2
H Excelsior1–0
A NEC Nijmegen2–2
H Twente1–1
Excelsior form
LWLLLH Twente0–9
A MVV0–3
A Fortuna Sittard1–0
A Heerenveen4–0
H Groningen1–5
Head to head
3
Fortuna
1
Draw
1
Excelsior
Oct 2026Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior1–0
Feb 2026Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior2–1
Oct 2025Excelsior – Fortuna Sittard1–0
Mar 2024Fortuna Sittard – Excelsior5–2
Aug 2023Excelsior – Fortuna Sittard2–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model makes Fortuna Sittard slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (2.05 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.57 for Excelsior), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fortuna Sittard sit 6th on 19 points; Excelsior are 12th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.