Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Merkur Spielarena
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10th · 16 pts2–2FULL TIME
Verl
17th · 12 pts51% Fortuna
26% Draw
24% Verl
OUR PICK
Fortuna Düsseldorf to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.98
Expected goals
1.54 – 0.97
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.98X3.9024.20
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.31
1X
76%
Season stats
Fortuna DüsseldorfVerl1.0Goals per game1.4
1.2Conceded per game2.2
1.33Points per game1.00
33%Win rate25%
-2Goal difference-9
6Form, last 5 (pts)2
Fortuna Düsseldorf form
DDLWDH SV Meppen0–0
A Hansa Rostock1–1
H FC Saarbrücken1–3
A Preußen Münster1–2
H Verl2–2
Verl form
LLLDDH SV Wehen1–4
A FC Viktoria Köln3–1
A Hoffenheim II2–1
H SSV Jahn Regensburg2–2
A Fortuna Düsseldorf2–2
Head to head
0
Fortuna
1
Draw
0
Verl
Oct 2026Fortuna Düsseldorf – Verl2–2
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen12+724
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5Alemannia Aachen12+120
6SV Wehen12+618
7FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model makes Fortuna Düsseldorf slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.98 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.54 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 0.97 for Verl), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fortuna Düsseldorf sit 10th on 16 points; Verl are 17th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.