Over 1.5 goals@1.31
Over 1.5
76%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Merkur Spielarena
Fortuna Düsseldorf
10th · 16 pts1–3FULL TIME
FC Saarbrücken
4th · 20 pts39% Fortuna
25% Draw
35% FC
OUR PICK
Fortuna Düsseldorf to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.56
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.34
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.56X3.9322.82
Goals 2.5Over1.92Under1.97
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Over 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Fortuna DüsseldorfFC Saarbrücken1.0Goals per game2.3
1.2Conceded per game1.8
1.33Points per game1.67
33%Win rate50%
-2Goal difference7
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Fortuna Düsseldorf form
DDLWDH SV Meppen0–0
A Hansa Rostock1–1
H FC Saarbrücken1–3
A Preußen Münster1–2
H Verl2–2
FC Saarbrücken form
WLWLDH Waldhof Mannheim2–1
A Havelse3–2
A Fortuna Düsseldorf1–3
H MSV Duisburg2–4
A Fortuna Köln0–0
Head to head
0
Fortuna
1
Draw
1
FC
Oct 2026Fortuna Düsseldorf – FC Saarbrücken1–3
Mar 2020FC Saarbrucken – Fortuna Dusseldorf2–2
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen12+724
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5Alemannia Aachen12+120
6SV Wehen12+618
7FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Fortuna Düsseldorf 39%, the draw 25%, FC Saarbrücken 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.42 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.34 for FC Saarbrücken), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fortuna Düsseldorf sit 10th on 16 points; FC Saarbrücken are 4th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.