Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Monday, 12 October 2026 · Estadio Castelão
Fortaleza EC
5th · 62 pts2–2FULL TIME
CRB
6th · 55 pts50% Fortaleza
26% Draw
24% CRB
OUR PICK
Fortaleza EC to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
1.99
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.97
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.99X3.8924.17
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.84
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.95
NG
51%
Double chance@1.32
1X
76%
Season stats
Fortaleza ECCRB1.2Goals per game1.5
0.9Conceded per game1.4
1.72Points per game1.57
44%Win rate46%
12Goal difference4
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Fortaleza EC form
DDWDWH Atletico Goianiense0–0
A Ponte Preta2–2
A Sport Recife0–2
H CRB2–2
A America Mineiro0–1
CRB form
LWLDWA Goias2–1
H Londrina2–1
H Botafogo SP0–1
A Fortaleza EC2–2
H Atletico Goianiense3–1
Head to head
1
Fortaleza
3
Draw
1
CRB
Oct 2026Fortaleza EC – CRB2–2
Jun 2026CRB – Fortaleza EC1–1
May 2026CRB – Fortaleza EC0–0
Apr 2026Fortaleza EC – CRB2–1
Mar 2025Fortaleza EC – CRB0–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense36+955
9Goias35-452
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model makes Fortaleza EC slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 26% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.99 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.53 for Fortaleza EC, 0.97 for CRB), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fortaleza EC sit 5th on 62 points; CRB are 6th on 55.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.