BRASerie A · Matchday 31Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Estádio do Maracanã

Fluminense

4th · 54 pts

1–2FULL TIME

Santos

8th · 47 pts

53% Fluminense

23% Draw

25% Santos

OUR PICK

Fluminense to win

Model probability 53% · fair odds

1.90

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.23

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X211.90X4.4424.01

Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36

Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.22

Over 1.5

82%

Over/Under 2.5@1.66

Over 2.5

60%

Both teams to score@1.67

60%

Double chance@1.29

77%

Season stats

FluminenseSantos

1.6Goals per game1.5

1.3Conceded per game1.4

1.64Points per game1.42

45%Win rate36%

10Goal difference2

6Form, last 5 (pts)6

Fluminense form

WLWLL

H Internacional2–1

A Chapecoense-sc2–1

A Palmeiras0–1

H Santos1–2

H Palmeiras1–2

Santos form

DDWLD

H Palmeiras0–0

H Bahia1–1

A Fluminense1–2

A Atletico-MG2–1

H Flamengo2–2

Head to head

Fluminense

Draw

Santos

Oct 2026Fluminense – Santos1–2

Apr 2026Santos – Fluminense2–3

Aug 2025Santos – Fluminense0–0

Apr 2025Fluminense – Santos1–0

Nov 2023Santos – Fluminense0–3

Serie A table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Flamengo33+4073

2Palmeiras33+3470

3Cruzeiro33+657

4Fluminense33+1054

5Atletico Paranaense33+1054

6Bahia33+653

7Atletico-MG33+550

8Santos33+247

9RB Bragantino33+444

10Sao Paulo33043

Match preview

Our model makes Fluminense slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.90 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.88 for Fluminense, 1.23 for Santos), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Fluminense sit 4th on 54 points; Santos are 8th on 47.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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