Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
BRASerie A · Matchday 33Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Estádio do Maracanã
Fluminense
4th · 54 pts2–1FULL TIME
Internacional
18th · 35 pts52% Fluminense
25% Draw
23% Internacional
OUR PICK
Fluminense to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.91
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.99
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.91X4.0524.35
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG1.98NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.98
GG
51%
Double chance@1.30
1X
77%
Season stats
FluminenseInternacional1.6Goals per game1.1
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.64Points per game1.06
45%Win rate24%
10Goal difference-5
6Form, last 5 (pts)7
Fluminense form
WLWLLH Internacional2–1
A Chapecoense-sc2–1
A Palmeiras0–1
H Santos1–2
H Palmeiras1–2
Internacional form
LWLDWA Fluminense2–1
H Botafogo3–0
A Mirassol2–0
A Gremio1–1
H Corinthians2–1
Head to head
3
Fluminense
1
Draw
1
Internacional
Oct 2026Fluminense – Internacional2–1
May 2026Internacional – Fluminense2–0
Oct 2025Fluminense – Internacional1–0
Aug 2025Fluminense – Internacional1–1
Jul 2025Internacional – Fluminense1–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Fluminense slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.91 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.63 for Fluminense, 0.99 for Internacional), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fluminense sit 4th on 54 points; Internacional are 18th on 35.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.