Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
BRASerie A · Matchday 29Friday, 9 October 2026 · Estádio do Maracanã
Fluminense
4th · 54 pts4–0FULL TIME
Coritiba
11th · 42 pts53% Fluminense
23% Draw
24% Coritiba
OUR PICK
Fluminense to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.11
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.89X4.2924.23
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
FluminenseCoritiba1.6Goals per game1.2
1.3Conceded per game1.5
1.64Points per game1.27
45%Win rate33%
10Goal difference-10
6Form, last 5 (pts)4
Fluminense form
No recent matches.
Coritiba form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Fluminense
0
Draw
0
Coritiba
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Fluminense slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.78 for Fluminense, 1.11 for Coritiba), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fluminense sit 4th on 54 points; Coritiba are 11th on 42.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.