Over 1.5 goals@1.28
Over 1.5
78%
WALPremier League · Matchday 13Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Essity Stadium
Flint Town United
13th · 14 pts0–1FULL TIME
Colwyn Bay
5th · 29 pts30% Flint
25% Draw
46% Colwyn
OUR PICK
Colwyn Bay to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.61
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.34X4.0822.20
Goals 2.5Over1.83Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.83
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
57%
Double chance@1.32
12
75%
Season stats
Flint Town UnitedColwyn Bay1.3Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game1.1
0.93Points per game1.93
27%Win rate60%
-6Goal difference9
12Form, last 5 (pts)10
Flint Town United form
WWLLWH Holywell5–0
A Trefelin0–2
H Caernarfon Town1–3
H Colwyn Bay0–1
A Haverfordwest County AFC0–1
Colwyn Bay form
WDDWLH Cambrian & Clydach2–0
H Cardiff MET2–2
A Buckley Town2–2
A Flint Town United0–1
A Briton Ferry1–0
Head to head
2
Flint
1
Draw
2
Colwyn
Oct 2026Flint Town United – Colwyn Bay0–1
Jan 2026Colwyn Bay – Flint Town United1–2
Oct 2025Flint Town United – Colwyn Bay0–1
Aug 2022Colwyn Bay – Flint Town United1–1
Jan 2020Flint Town United – Colwyn Bay3–2
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1The New Saints15+4741
2GAP Connah S Quay FC15+2335
3Penybont14+1933
4Caernarfon Town15+2329
5Colwyn Bay15+929
6Barry Town15+628
7Airbus UK15+927
8Cardiff MET15+322
9Cambrian & Clydach15-1518
10Llandudno15-616
Match preview
Our model makes Colwyn Bay slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.26 for Flint Town United, 1.61 for Colwyn Bay), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Flint Town United sit 13th on 14 points; Colwyn Bay are 5th on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.