Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ENGLeague Two · Matchday 11Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Highbury Stadium
Fleetwood Town
16th · 17 pts2–0FULL TIME
Rotherham
22nd · 12 pts49% Fleetwood
24% Draw
27% Rotherham
OUR PICK
Fleetwood Town to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.04
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.25
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.04X4.2623.65
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.70NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.70
GG
59%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
Fleetwood TownRotherham1.3Goals per game1.3
1.3Conceded per game1.8
1.21Points per game0.86
29%Win rate14%
0Goal difference-7
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
Fleetwood Town form
WDLLWH Bristol Rovers3–1
H Arsenal1–1
A Exeter City2–1
A Cheltenham4–2
H Rotherham2–0
Rotherham form
LDDLLA Swindon Town2–1
H Shrewsbury3–3
H Newport County2–2
A Fleetwood Town2–0
H Gillingham1–4
Head to head
3
Fleetwood
0
Draw
2
Rotherham
Oct 2026Fleetwood Town – Rotherham2–0
Aug 2024Fleetwood Town – Rotherham2–1
Jul 2022Rotherham – Fleetwood Town2–0
Jul 2022Fleetwood Town – Rotherham0–2
Jan 2022Fleetwood Town – Rotherham1–0
League Two table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Salford City14+1031
2Barnet13+1026
3Walsall13+922
4Crewe14022
5Cheltenham14-221
6Grimsby14+620
7York14+320
8Gillingham14+120
9Accrington ST14+619
10Chesterfield14+319
Match preview
Our model makes Fleetwood Town slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.04 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.75 for Fleetwood Town, 1.25 for Rotherham), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fleetwood Town sit 16th on 17 points; Rotherham are 22nd on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.