Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
BRASerie A · Matchday 34Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Estádio do Maracanã
Flamengo
1st · 73 pts23:30KICK-OFF WAT
Gremio
15th · 37 pts72% Flamengo
18% Draw
10% Gremio
OUR PICK
Flamengo to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.38
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.69
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.38X5.6729.90
Goals 2.5Over1.80Under2.14
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.80
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.80
NG
56%
Double chance@1.11
1X
90%
Season stats
FlamengoGremio2.1Goals per game1.1
0.8Conceded per game1.3
2.21Points per game1.12
67%Win rate27%
40Goal difference-7
13Form, last 5 (pts)8
Flamengo form
WWDWDA Vasco DA Gama1–4
H Atletico-MG3–2
H Estudiantes L.P.0–0
A Bahia0–3
A Estudiantes L.P.0–0
Gremio form
WWWLDH Atletico-MG2–0
H Atletico Paranaense2–0
A Coritiba0–1
H Cruzeiro2–4
H Internacional1–1
Head to head
3
Flamengo
1
Draw
1
Gremio
May 2026Gremio – Flamengo0–1
Aug 2025Flamengo – Gremio1–1
Apr 2025Gremio – Flamengo0–2
Sept 2024Gremio – Flamengo3–2
Jun 2024Flamengo – Gremio2–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (2.22 for Flamengo, 0.69 for Gremio), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Flamengo sit 1st on 73 points; Gremio are 15th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.