Over 1.5 goals@1.34
Over 1.5
74%
BRASerie A · Matchday 32Monday, 26 October 2026 · Estádio do Maracanã
Flamengo
1st · 73 pts3–2FULL TIME
Atletico-MG
7th · 50 pts64% Flamengo
22% Draw
15% Atletico-MG
OUR PICK
Flamengo to win
Model probability 64% · fair odds
1.57
Expected goals
1.89 – 0.77
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.57X4.6426.86
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under1.98
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.84
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.98
Under 2.5
50%
Both teams to score@1.84
NG
54%
Double chance@1.17
1X
85%
Season stats
FlamengoAtletico-MG2.1Goals per game1.3
0.8Conceded per game1.2
2.21Points per game1.52
67%Win rate42%
40Goal difference5
13Form, last 5 (pts)7
Flamengo form
WWDWDA Vasco DA Gama1–4
H Atletico-MG3–2
H Estudiantes L.P.0–0
A Bahia0–3
A Estudiantes L.P.0–0
Atletico-MG form
LLLWWH Cruzeiro0–1
A Flamengo3–2
A Atletico Torque2–0
H Coritiba1–0
H Atletico Torque3–0
Head to head
3
Flamengo
1
Draw
1
Atletico-MG
Oct 2026Flamengo – Atletico-MG3–2
Apr 2026Atletico-MG – Flamengo0–4
Nov 2025Atletico-MG – Flamengo1–1
Aug 2025Atletico-MG – Flamengo0–1
Aug 2025Flamengo – Atletico-MG0–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Flamengo33+4073
2Palmeiras33+3470
3Cruzeiro33+657
4Fluminense33+1054
5Atletico Paranaense33+1054
6Bahia33+653
7Atletico-MG33+550
8Santos33+247
9RB Bragantino33+444
10Sao Paulo33043
Match preview
Our model makes Flamengo clear favourites, giving them a 64% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.89 for Flamengo, 0.77 for Atletico-MG), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Flamengo sit 1st on 73 points; Atletico-MG are 7th on 50.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.