Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
SRBSuper Liga · Matchday 12Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stadion Rajko Mit
FK Crvena Zvezda
1st · 40 pts5–1FULL TIME
Mladost Lucani
7th · 18 pts78% FK
16% Draw
6% Mladost
OUR PICK
FK Crvena Zvezda to win
Model probability 78% · fair odds
1.29
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.42
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.29X6.09216.68
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.89
Both scoreGG3.14NG1.43
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.43
NG
70%
Double chance@1.06
1X
94%
Season stats
FK Crvena ZvezdaMladost Lucani2.6Goals per game0.9
0.4Conceded per game1.4
2.86Points per game1.38
93%Win rate31%
31Goal difference-6
15Form, last 5 (pts)5
FK Crvena Zvezda form
WWWDWA Macva2–4
A Jedinstvo Ub1–5
A OFK Beograd0–1
H FC Copenhagen2–2
H Mladost Lucani5–1
Mladost Lucani form
DDLDWA Teleoptik1–1
H Vojvodina1–1
A FK Crvena Zvezda5–1
H OFK Beograd0–0
A Macva1–2
Head to head
5
FK
0
Draw
0
Mladost
Oct 2026FK Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lucani5–1
Dec 2025FK Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lucani4–0
Aug 2025Mladost Lucani – FK Crvena Zvezda1–4
May 2025FK Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lucani3–1
Nov 2024Mladost Lucani – FK Crvena Zvezda0–2
Super Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FK Crvena Zvezda14+3140
2Vojvodina14+1832
3Železničar Pančevo13+1026
4IMT Novi Beograd14+622
5Radnicki 192313+320
6Cukaricki14-119
7Mladost Lucani13-618
8Radnik Surdulica13017
9Novi Pazar13-116
10FK Partizan13-314
Match preview
Our model makes FK Crvena Zvezda clear favourites, giving them a 78% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.29 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (2.14 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.42 for Mladost Lucani), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FK Crvena Zvezda sit 1st on 40 points; Mladost Lucani are 7th on 18.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.