Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina
16th · 8 pts1–3FULL TIME
Como
4th · 23 pts23% Fiorentina
23% Draw
55% Como
OUR PICK
Como to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.83
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.87
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.38X4.4321.83
Goals 2.5Over1.73Under2.25
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.73
Over 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
FiorentinaComo1.5Goals per game1.8
2.3Conceded per game0.8
0.80Points per game2.30
20%Win rate70%
-8Goal difference10
4Form, last 5 (pts)13
Fiorentina form
WDLLLA Sassuolo2–4
H Atalanta2–2
A Inter2–1
H Como1–3
A Genoa2–1
Como form
WWWWWH Venezia1–0
A Torino1–3
H Sassuolo2–0
H Manchester United4–1
A Fiorentina1–3
Head to head
1
Fiorentina
0
Draw
4
Como
Oct 2026Fiorentina – Como1–3
Feb 2026Como – Fiorentina1–2
Jan 2026Fiorentina – Como1–3
Sept 2025Fiorentina – Como1–2
Feb 2025Fiorentina – Como0–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Como clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.83 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.13 for Fiorentina, 1.87 for Como), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fiorentina sit 16th on 8 points; Como are 4th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.