Over 1.5 goals@1.14
Over 1.5
88%
ITASerie A · Matchday 9Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina
17th · 5 pts2–2FULL TIME
Atalanta
13th · 11 pts31% Fiorentina
21% Draw
47% Atalanta
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Atalanta to win
Model probability 47% · fair odds
2.11
Expected goals
1.61 – 2.02
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.22X4.6622.11
Goals 2.5Over1.42Under3.14
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.42
Over 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
69%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
FiorentinaAtalanta1.2Goals per game1.8
2.3Conceded per game1.9
0.56Points per game1.22
11%Win rate33%
-10Goal difference-1
2Form, last 5 (pts)5
Fiorentina form
DLLLDH Atalanta2–2
A Inter2–1
H Como1–3
A Genoa2–1
H Napoli1–1
Atalanta form
DDLLWA Fiorentina2–2
H Frosinone4–4
A Ajax2–0
A AC Milan3–2
H Pafos3–1
Head to head
0
Fiorentina
0
Draw
0
Atalanta
These sides haven't met recently.
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Atalanta slight favourites, giving them a 47% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.61 for Fiorentina, 2.02 for Atalanta), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fiorentina sit 17th on 5 points; Atalanta are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.