Over 1.5 goals@1.16
Over 1.5
86%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 8Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Stadion Feijenoord
Feyenoord
1st · 25 pts2–0FULL TIME
AZ Alkmaar
5th · 20 pts57% Feyenoord
20% Draw
22% AZ
OUR PICK
Feyenoord to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.29
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.8824.48
Goals 2.5Over1.49Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.56NG2.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.49
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.56
GG
64%
Double chance@1.26
12
80%
Season stats
FeyenoordAZ Alkmaar3.0Goals per game1.8
1.1Conceded per game1.2
2.27Points per game1.82
64%Win rate55%
21Goal difference7
11Form, last 5 (pts)4
Feyenoord form
DDLWWH Fortuna Sittard1–1
A PSV Eindhoven1–1
A Real Betis1–0
A Telstar3–4
H Como3–2
AZ Alkmaar form
LLWDWA Ajax1–0
H Twente0–2
A Ararat-Armenia0–4
A Cambuur2–2
H Hapoel Beer Sheva2–1
Head to head
3
Feyenoord
2
Draw
0
AZ
Oct 2026Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar2–0
May 2026Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar1–1
Sept 2025AZ Alkmaar – Feyenoord3–3
Apr 2025AZ Alkmaar – Feyenoord0–1
Nov 2024Feyenoord – AZ Alkmaar3–2
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen11+215
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes Feyenoord clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (2.16 for Feyenoord, 1.29 for AZ Alkmaar), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Feyenoord sit 1st on 25 points; AZ Alkmaar are 5th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.