Over 1.5 goals@1.57
Over 1.5
64%
ARGPrimera Nacional · Matchday 32Friday, 2 October 2026 · Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry
Ferro Carril Oeste
2nd · 66 pts0–2FULL TIME
Deportivo Madryn
4th · 60 pts36% Ferro
29% Draw
35% Deportivo
OUR PICK
Ferro Carril Oeste to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.77
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.07
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.77X3.4022.89
Goals 2.5Over2.55Under1.59
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.59
Under 2.5
63%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.42
12
71%
Season stats
Ferro Carril OesteDeportivo Madryn1.1Goals per game1.4
0.9Conceded per game0.9
1.83Points per game1.67
53%Win rate44%
7Goal difference21
5Form, last 5 (pts)10
Ferro Carril Oeste form
DLWDLA Acassuso0–0
H Chaco For Ever0–3
H Racing Cordoba1–0
A Central Norte1–1
H Deportivo Madryn0–2
Deportivo Madryn form
WWDLWA San Miguel0–1
H San Telmo4–1
A Acassuso0–0
H Chaco For Ever1–2
A Ferro Carril Oeste0–2
Head to head
1
Ferro
1
Draw
3
Deportivo
Oct 2026Ferro Carril Oeste – Deportivo Madryn0–2
May 2026Deportivo Madryn – Ferro Carril Oeste0–1
Jul 2025Ferro Carril Oeste – Deportivo Madryn1–1
Mar 2025Deportivo Madryn – Ferro Carril Oeste1–0
Jul 2023Deportivo Madryn – Ferro Carril Oeste1–0
Primera Nacional table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Godoy Cruz36+2066
2Ferro Carril Oeste36+766
3Deportivo Moron36+1661
4Deportivo Madryn36+2160
5Colon Santa Fe36+1860
6Almirante Brown36+451
7Ciudad de Bolívar36-351
8CA Estudiantes36049
9Chaco For Ever36+246
10Los Andes36+143
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Ferro Carril Oeste 36%, the draw 29%, Deportivo Madryn 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.10 for Ferro Carril Oeste, 1.07 for Deportivo Madryn), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ferro Carril Oeste sit 2nd on 66 points; Deportivo Madryn are 4th on 60.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.