Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
HUNNB I · Matchday 11Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Groupama Aréna
Ferencvarosi TC
3rd · 20 pts5–0FULL TIME
MTK Budapest
11th · 12 pts59% Ferencvarosi
22% Draw
19% MTK
OUR PICK
Ferencvarosi TC to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.00
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.68X4.6225.30
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.23
1X
81%
Season stats
Ferencvarosi TCMTK Budapest1.8Goals per game1.3
0.9Conceded per game2.1
1.82Points per game1.00
45%Win rate25%
10Goal difference-9
9Form, last 5 (pts)3
Ferencvarosi TC form
WWWWDH Paks2–0
A Bicskei1–4
H MTK Budapest5–0
H Torreense4–1
A Kisvarda FC1–1
MTK Budapest form
LWLWLA Zalaegerszegi TE3–0
A Monori Se1–5
A Ferencvarosi TC5–0
H Vasas1–0
A Paks3–0
Head to head
4
Ferencvarosi
1
Draw
0
MTK
Oct 2026Ferencvarosi TC – MTK Budapest5–0
Feb 2026MTK Budapest – Ferencvarosi TC1–3
Nov 2025Ferencvarosi TC – MTK Budapest4–1
Jul 2025MTK Budapest – Ferencvarosi TC1–1
Apr 2025MTK Budapest – Ferencvarosi TC2–3
NB I table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Gyori ETO FC12+722
2Puskas Academy12+221
3Ferencvarosi TC11+1020
4Debreceni VSC12+419
5Ujpest12+318
6Paks12+117
7Vasas12+316
8Budapest Honved11-313
9Zalaegerszegi TE12-613
10Kisvarda FC12-212
Match preview
Our model makes Ferencvarosi TC clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.95 for Ferencvarosi TC, 1.00 for MTK Budapest), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Ferencvarosi TC sit 3rd on 20 points; MTK Budapest are 11th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.