Over 1.5 goals@1.04
Over 1.5
96%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · Chobani Stadium
Fenerbahçe
31st · 2 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Liverpool
3rd · 9 pts22% Fenerbahçe
16% Draw
62% Liverpool
OUR PICK
Liverpool to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.62
Expected goals
1.89 – 3.10
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.55X6.1221.62
Goals 2.5Over1.15Under7.26
Both scoreGG1.23NG4.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.15
Over 2.5
87%
Both teams to score@1.23
GG
81%
Double chance@1.20
12
84%
Season stats
FenerbahçeLiverpool1.0Goals per game4.0
3.0Conceded per game2.3
0.67Points per game3.00
0%Win rate100%
-6Goal difference5
6Form, last 5 (pts)9
Fenerbahçe form
LLDWLH Göztepe1–2
A Galatasaray2–1
H Slavia Praha2–2
H Alanyaspor3–0
A Aston Villa6–0
Liverpool form
LDWWWH Arsenal0–1
H Chelsea1–1
H Brighton2–0
H Villarreal4–3
A Brentford1–2
Head to head
0
Fenerbahçe
0
Draw
0
Liverpool
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model makes Liverpool clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 5.0 goals in total (1.89 for Fenerbahçe, 3.10 for Liverpool), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fenerbahçe sit 31st on 2 points; Liverpool are 3rd on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.