Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
TURSüper Lig · Matchday 8Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Chobani Stadium
Fenerbahçe
6th · 16 pts3–0FULL TIME
Alanyaspor
12th · 12 pts69% Fenerbahçe
18% Draw
13% Alanyaspor
OUR PICK
Fenerbahçe to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.85
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.44X5.5327.96
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.95NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.95
GG
51%
Double chance@1.14
1X
87%
Season stats
FenerbahçeAlanyaspor2.4Goals per game0.9
1.0Conceded per game1.6
1.60Points per game1.20
50%Win rate30%
14Goal difference-7
9Form, last 5 (pts)4
Fenerbahçe form
LLDWLH Göztepe1–2
A Galatasaray2–1
H Slavia Praha2–2
H Alanyaspor3–0
A Aston Villa6–0
Alanyaspor form
LWLLDA Gençlerbirliği S.K.5–0
H 12 Bingölspor4–1
H Kocaelispor1–2
A Fenerbahçe3–0
H Erzurumspor FK0–0
Head to head
4
Fenerbahçe
1
Draw
0
Alanyaspor
Oct 2026Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor3–0
Jan 2026Alanyaspor – Fenerbahçe2–3
Sept 2025Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor2–2
Feb 2025Alanyaspor – Fenerbahçe0–2
Aug 2024Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor3–0
Süper Lig table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Galatasaray10+1125
2Amed10+1423
3Trabzonspor10+1622
4Beşiktaş10+819
5Kasımpaşa10+417
6Fenerbahçe10+1416
7Çorum FK10+516
8Kocaelispor10+216
9Göztepe10+415
10Başakşehir10+114
Match preview
Our model makes Fenerbahçe clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.27 for Fenerbahçe, 0.85 for Alanyaspor), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Fenerbahçe sit 6th on 16 points; Alanyaspor are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.