Over 1.5 goals@1.05
Over 1.5
95%
SUISuper League · Matchday 10Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Letzigrund Stadion
FC Zurich
4th · 20 pts4–2FULL TIME
FC Thun
9th · 13 pts56% FC
18% Draw
26% FC
OUR PICK
FC Zurich to win
Model probability 56% · fair odds
1.78
Expected goals
2.83 – 1.96
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.78X5.6623.80
Goals 2.5Over1.17Under6.74
Both scoreGG1.24NG4.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.17
Over 2.5
86%
Both teams to score@1.24
GG
81%
Double chance@1.21
12
82%
Season stats
FC ZurichFC Thun2.1Goals per game2.0
2.2Conceded per game2.8
1.67Points per game1.08
50%Win rate33%
-1Goal difference-10
13Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC Zurich form
WWLWWA BSC Young Boys3–5
H FC Luzern2–1
A FC Aarau2–0
H FC Thun4–2
H Neuchatel Xamax FC3–1
FC Thun form
WLLDLA Lausanne4–5
H FC Lugano2–3
H HNK Hajduk Split0–1
A FC Schaffhausen2–2
A Twente1–0
Head to head
2
FC
1
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026FC Zurich – FC Thun4–2
Mar 2026FC Zurich – FC Thun2–1
Dec 2025FC Thun – FC Zurich4–2
Aug 2025FC Zurich – FC Thun0–4
Jul 2024FC Thun – FC Zurich0–0
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Lugano12+2634
2BSC Young Boys12+1525
3FC Sion12+723
4FC Zurich12-120
5FC ST. Gallen12-319
6Servette FC12+116
7FC Basel 189312-414
8FC Luzern12-613
9FC Thun12-1013
10FC Vaduz12-110
Match preview
Our model makes FC Zurich slight favourites, giving them a 56% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.78 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.8 goals in total (2.83 for FC Zurich, 1.96 for FC Thun), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Zurich sit 4th on 20 points; FC Thun are 9th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.