Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
SUISuper League · Matchday 11Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Letzigrund Stadion
FC Zurich
4th · 20 pts2–1FULL TIME
FC Luzern
8th · 13 pts54% FC
19% Draw
27% FC
OUR PICK
FC Zurich to win
Model probability 54% · fair odds
1.86
Expected goals
2.47 – 1.75
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.86X5.2323.67
Goals 2.5Over1.26Under4.49
Both scoreGG1.32NG3.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Over 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.32
GG
76%
Double chance@1.24
12
81%
Season stats
FC ZurichFC Luzern2.1Goals per game1.6
2.2Conceded per game2.1
1.67Points per game1.08
50%Win rate25%
-1Goal difference-6
13Form, last 5 (pts)4
FC Zurich form
WWLWWA BSC Young Boys3–5
H FC Luzern2–1
A FC Aarau2–0
H FC Thun4–2
H Neuchatel Xamax FC3–1
FC Luzern form
DLWLLH FC Sion1–1
A FC Zurich2–1
A FC Winterthur0–1
A FC Lugano4–0
A SC Freiburg4–2
Head to head
2
FC
1
Draw
2
FC
Oct 2026FC Zurich – FC Luzern2–1
May 2026FC Luzern – FC Zurich1–0
Feb 2026FC Zurich – FC Luzern1–4
Nov 2025FC Zurich – FC Luzern3–2
Aug 2025FC Luzern – FC Zurich1–1
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Lugano12+2634
2BSC Young Boys12+1525
3FC Sion12+723
4FC Zurich12-120
5FC ST. Gallen12-319
6Servette FC12+116
7FC Basel 189312-414
8FC Luzern12-613
9FC Thun12-1013
10FC Vaduz12-110
Match preview
Our model makes FC Zurich slight favourites, giving them a 54% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.86 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (2.47 for FC Zurich, 1.75 for FC Luzern), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Zurich sit 4th on 20 points; FC Luzern are 8th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.