Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Kras Stadion
FC Volendam
7th · 19 pts2–0FULL TIME
Vitesse
9th · 17 pts52% FC
21% Draw
26% Vitesse
OUR PICK
FC Volendam to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.92
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.40
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.92X4.6523.78
Goals 2.5Over1.50Under2.86
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.50
Over 2.5
67%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
FC VolendamVitesse2.3Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game1.4
1.46Points per game1.42
46%Win rate42%
8Goal difference-1
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
FC Volendam form
LLWDWH De Graafschap1–2
A FC Eindhoven5–3
H Jong Utrecht6–2
A Waalwijk1–1
H Vitesse2–0
Vitesse form
WLWLDA VVV Venlo0–2
H Emmen0–2
A FC Eindhoven0–1
A FC Volendam2–0
H NAC Breda2–2
Head to head
3
FC
1
Draw
1
Vitesse
Oct 2026FC Volendam – Vitesse2–0
Jan 2025FC Volendam – Vitesse4–0
Oct 2024Vitesse – FC Volendam1–2
Feb 2024Vitesse – FC Volendam1–1
Aug 2023FC Volendam – Vitesse1–2
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC Volendam slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.92 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (2.03 for FC Volendam, 1.40 for Vitesse), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Volendam sit 7th on 19 points; Vitesse are 9th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.