Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · Kras Stadion
FC Volendam
7th · 19 pts6–2FULL TIME
Jong Utrecht
20th · 10 pts62% FC
18% Draw
20% Jong
OUR PICK
FC Volendam to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.60
Expected goals
2.61 – 1.44
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.60X5.6125.06
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.41NG3.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.41
GG
71%
Double chance@1.22
12
82%
Season stats
FC VolendamJong Utrecht2.3Goals per game1.7
1.7Conceded per game2.5
1.46Points per game0.77
46%Win rate23%
8Goal difference-11
7Form, last 5 (pts)3
FC Volendam form
LLWDWH De Graafschap1–2
A FC Eindhoven5–3
H Jong Utrecht6–2
A Waalwijk1–1
H Vitesse2–0
Jong Utrecht form
WLLLLH Dordrecht3–2
A FC Volendam6–2
H Roda1–2
A De Graafschap2–1
H VVV Venlo1–3
Head to head
5
FC
0
Draw
0
Jong
Oct 2026FC Volendam – Jong Utrecht6–2
Apr 2025Jong Utrecht – FC Volendam2–3
Nov 2024FC Volendam – Jong Utrecht2–0
Feb 2022FC Volendam – Jong Utrecht2–0
Nov 2021Jong Utrecht – FC Volendam0–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC Volendam clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.60 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.61 for FC Volendam, 1.44 for Jong Utrecht), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Volendam sit 7th on 19 points; Jong Utrecht are 20th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.