Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 13Friday, 30 October 2026 · Kras Stadion
FC Volendam
7th · 19 pts1–2FULL TIME
De Graafschap
14th · 15 pts73% FC
15% Draw
12% De
OUR PICK
FC Volendam to win
Model probability 73% · fair odds
1.37
Expected goals
2.92 – 1.17
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.37X6.7828.04
Goals 2.5Over1.29Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.53NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.29
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.53
GG
65%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
FC VolendamDe Graafschap2.3Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game2.1
1.46Points per game1.15
46%Win rate31%
8Goal difference-10
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
FC Volendam form
LLWDWH De Graafschap1–2
A FC Eindhoven5–3
H Jong Utrecht6–2
A Waalwijk1–1
H Vitesse2–0
De Graafschap form
WLDLWA FC Volendam1–2
A Roda1–0
H Waalwijk1–1
A Jong Ajax2–1
H Jong Utrecht2–1
Head to head
3
FC
0
Draw
2
De
Oct 2026FC Volendam – De Graafschap1–2
Dec 2024FC Volendam – De Graafschap2–1
Aug 2024De Graafschap – FC Volendam4–3
Apr 2022FC Volendam – De Graafschap3–1
Sept 2021De Graafschap – FC Volendam0–3
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC Volendam clear favourites, giving them a 73% chance of winning against 15% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.37 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (2.92 for FC Volendam, 1.17 for De Graafschap), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Volendam sit 7th on 19 points; De Graafschap are 14th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.