Over 1.5 goals@1.74
Over 1.5
57%
USAUSL Championship · Group StageSunday, 4 October 2026 · ONEOK Field
FC Tulsa
1–1FULL TIME
Sacramento Republic
33% FC
32% Draw
36% Sacramento
OUR PICK
Sacramento Republic to win
Model probability 36% · fair odds
2.81
Expected goals
0.94 – 0.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.04X3.1722.81
Goals 2.5Over3.14Under1.44
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Under 2.5
70%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.46
12
68%
FC Tulsa form
LLLDDA Sacramento Republic1–0
A Colorado Springs2–0
H Oakland Roots2–4
A Lexington0–0
H Sacramento Republic1–1
Sacramento Republic form
WWWDDH FC Tulsa1–0
H Oakland Roots3–2
A El Paso Locomotive0–1
H Colorado Springs1–1
A FC Tulsa1–1
Head to head
2
FC
1
Draw
2
Sacramento
Nov 2026Sacramento Republic – FC Tulsa1–0
Oct 2026FC Tulsa – Sacramento Republic1–1
Aug 2026FC Tulsa – Sacramento Republic1–0
Mar 2026Sacramento Republic – FC Tulsa2–0
Jun 2025Sacramento Republic – FC Tulsa0–1
USL Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Tampa Bay Rowdies30+2661
2Charleston Battery30+2153
3Detroit City30+1351
4Louisville City30+847
5Pittsburgh Riverhounds30+345
6Hartford Athletic30+243
7Rhode Island30+942
8Miami FC30-1036
9Indy Eleven30-634
10Loudoun United30-1031
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: FC Tulsa 33%, the draw 32%, Sacramento Republic 36%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.81 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.9 goals in total (0.94 for FC Tulsa, 0.99 for Sacramento Republic), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.