Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 12Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Ajinomoto Stadium
FC Tokyo
1st · 30 pts6–0FULL TIME
Mito Hollyhock
19th · 9 pts75% FC
17% Draw
8% Mito
OUR PICK
FC Tokyo to win
Model probability 75% · fair odds
1.33
Expected goals
2.26 – 0.59
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.33X6.05212.31
Goals 2.5Over1.85Under2.05
Both scoreGG2.36NG1.66
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.66
NG
60%
Double chance@1.09
1X
92%
Season stats
FC TokyoMito Hollyhock2.4Goals per game0.9
0.6Conceded per game1.9
2.31Points per game0.69
69%Win rate15%
23Goal difference-13
13Form, last 5 (pts)0
FC Tokyo form
WWDWLA Fagiano Okayama0–4
H Mito Hollyhock6–0
H Kashiwa Reysol0–0
A Tokyo Verdy0–4
A Mito Hollyhock1–0
Mito Hollyhock form
LLLLLH Sanfrecce Hiroshima0–3
H Cerezo Osaka1–3
A FC Tokyo6–0
A Fagiano Okayama2–0
H Urawa0–1
Head to head
2
FC
1
Draw
2
Mito
Oct 2026FC Tokyo – Mito Hollyhock6–0
Oct 2026Mito Hollyhock – FC Tokyo1–0
Apr 2026FC Tokyo – Mito Hollyhock5–2
Mar 2026Mito Hollyhock – FC Tokyo1–1
Oct 2024FC Tokyo – Mito Hollyhock2–3
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes FC Tokyo clear favourites, giving them a 75% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.33 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (2.26 for FC Tokyo, 0.59 for Mito Hollyhock), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Tokyo sit 1st on 30 points; Mito Hollyhock are 19th on 9.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.