Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Ajinomoto Stadium
FC Tokyo
1st · 30 pts0–0FULL TIME
Kashiwa Reysol
4th · 28 pts70% FC
16% Draw
14% Kashiwa
OUR PICK
FC Tokyo to win
Model probability 70% · fair odds
1.43
Expected goals
2.69 – 1.14
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.43X6.1927.22
Goals 2.5Over1.36Under3.49
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.36
Over 2.5
73%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.16
1X
86%
Season stats
FC TokyoKashiwa Reysol2.4Goals per game2.2
0.6Conceded per game1.5
2.31Points per game2.15
69%Win rate69%
23Goal difference10
13Form, last 5 (pts)10
FC Tokyo form
WWDWLA Fagiano Okayama0–4
H Mito Hollyhock6–0
H Kashiwa Reysol0–0
A Tokyo Verdy0–4
A Mito Hollyhock1–0
Kashiwa Reysol form
WWDWDH Daejeon Citizen2–0
H Urawa4–0
A Ratchaburi0–0
A Kashima2–3
A FC Tokyo0–0
Head to head
0
FC
0
Draw
0
Kashiwa
These sides haven't met recently.
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes FC Tokyo clear favourites, giving them a 70% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (2.69 for FC Tokyo, 1.14 for Kashiwa Reysol), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Tokyo sit 1st on 30 points; Kashiwa Reysol are 4th on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.