Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 14Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Ajinomoto Stadium
FC Tokyo
1st · 30 pts07:00KICK-OFF WAT
Kashima
6th · 23 pts72% FC
16% Draw
12% Kashima
OUR PICK
FC Tokyo to win
Model probability 72% · fair odds
1.38
Expected goals
2.67 – 1.01
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.38X6.3928.37
Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
FC TokyoKashima2.4Goals per game2.2
0.6Conceded per game1.7
2.31Points per game1.77
69%Win rate54%
23Goal difference7
13Form, last 5 (pts)10
FC Tokyo form
WWDWLA Fagiano Okayama0–4
H Mito Hollyhock6–0
H Kashiwa Reysol0–0
A Tokyo Verdy0–4
A Mito Hollyhock1–0
Kashima form
WWLDWH Cerezo Osaka4–1
H Pohang Steelers3–0
H Kashiwa Reysol2–3
A Kyoto Sanga2–2
H V-varen Nagasaki2–0
Head to head
0
FC
1
Draw
4
Kashima
May 2026Kashima – FC Tokyo1–0
Feb 2026FC Tokyo – Kashima1–1
Aug 2025FC Tokyo – Kashima0–1
Mar 2025Kashima – FC Tokyo2–0
Jul 2024Kashima – FC Tokyo2–1
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes FC Tokyo clear favourites, giving them a 72% chance of winning against 16% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.38 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (2.67 for FC Tokyo, 1.01 for Kashima), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Tokyo sit 1st on 30 points; Kashima are 6th on 23.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.