Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
73%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 22 October 2026 · Stockhorn Arena
FC Thun
32nd · 0 pts0–1FULL TIME
HNK Hajduk Split
8th · 6 pts35% FC
27% Draw
39% HNK
OUR PICK
HNK Hajduk Split to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.57
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.33
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.89X3.7722.57
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.90
Both scoreGG1.91NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.90
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.91
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
FC ThunHNK Hajduk Split0.0Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game0.5
0.00Points per game3.00
0%Win rate100%
-2Goal difference2
0Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC Thun form
WLLDLA Lausanne4–5
H FC Lugano2–3
H HNK Hajduk Split0–1
A FC Schaffhausen2–2
A Twente1–0
HNK Hajduk Split form
WDWWWH HNK Gorica5–0
A Istra 19612–2
A FC Thun0–1
H NK Varazdin1–0
H Ajax2–1
Head to head
0
FC
0
Draw
1
HNK
Oct 2026FC Thun – HNK Hajduk Split0–1
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: FC Thun 35%, the draw 27%, HNK Hajduk Split 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.24 for FC Thun, 1.33 for HNK Hajduk Split), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Thun sit 32nd on 0 points; HNK Hajduk Split are 8th on 6.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.