Over 1.5 goals@1.07
Over 1.5
93%
SUISuper League · Matchday 11Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Cornaredo
FC Thun
9th · 13 pts2–3FULL TIME
FC Lugano
1st · 34 pts11% FC
13% Draw
76% FC
OUR PICK
FC Lugano to win
Model probability 76% · fair odds
1.32
Expected goals
1.21 – 3.20
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X219.10X7.5721.32
Goals 2.5Over1.23Under4.97
Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.23
Over 2.5
81%
Both teams to score@1.49
GG
67%
Double chance@1.12
X2
89%
Season stats
FC ThunFC Lugano2.0Goals per game3.0
2.8Conceded per game0.8
1.08Points per game2.83
33%Win rate92%
-10Goal difference26
6Form, last 5 (pts)15
FC Thun form
WLLDLA Lausanne4–5
H FC Lugano2–3
H HNK Hajduk Split0–1
A FC Schaffhausen2–2
A Twente1–0
FC Lugano form
WWWWWH FC Basel 18932–1
A FC Thun2–3
A Getafe2–5
A Pully Football0–4
H FK Crvena Zvezda3–2
Head to head
0
FC
0
Draw
0
FC
These sides haven't met recently.
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Lugano12+2634
2BSC Young Boys12+1525
3FC Sion12+723
4FC Zurich12-120
5FC ST. Gallen12-319
6Servette FC12+116
7FC Basel 189312-414
8FC Luzern12-613
9FC Thun12-1013
10FC Vaduz12-110
Match preview
Our model makes FC Lugano clear favourites, giving them a 76% chance of winning against 13% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.32 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.4 goals in total (1.21 for FC Thun, 3.20 for FC Lugano), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Thun sit 9th on 13 points; FC Lugano are 1st on 34.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.