Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
80%
GER2. Bundesliga · Matchday 7Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Millerntor-Stadion
FC St. Pauli
8th · 12 pts2–0FULL TIME
Karlsruher SC
13th · 11 pts51% FC
23% Draw
26% Karlsruher
OUR PICK
FC St. Pauli to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.20
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.97X4.2823.86
Goals 2.5Over1.75Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.72NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.75
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.72
GG
58%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
FC St. PauliKarlsruher SC1.2Goals per game1.3
1.2Conceded per game2.1
1.20Points per game1.10
20%Win rate30%
0Goal difference-8
6Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC St. Pauli form
LDDWDH 1. FC Nürnberg1–3
A SV Darmstadt 980–0
A Hannover 961–1
H Karlsruher SC2–0
H Borussia Mönchengladbach1–1
Karlsruher SC form
WLLWLH 1. FC Heidenheim2–1
A Borussia Mönchengladbach2–0
A 1. FC Magdeburg6–1
H SV Darmstadt 984–0
A FC St. Pauli2–0
Head to head
3
FC
1
Draw
1
Karlsruher
Oct 2026FC St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC2–0
Jul 2025FC St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC6–1
Apr 2024Karlsruher SC – FC St. Pauli2–1
Oct 2023FC St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC2–1
May 2023FC St. Pauli – Karlsruher SC1–1
2. Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Hertha BSC10+1528
21. FC Nürnberg10+1121
3VfL Wolfsburg10+1119
41. FC Kaiserslautern10+218
51. FC Magdeburg10+817
61. FC Heidenheim10-115
7Arminia Bielefeld10+114
8FC St. Pauli10012
9SpVgg Greuther Fürth10-312
10VfL Osnabrück10-311
Match preview
Our model makes FC St. Pauli slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.77 for FC St. Pauli, 1.20 for Karlsruher SC), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC St. Pauli sit 8th on 12 points; Karlsruher SC are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.