Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
GERBundesliga · Matchday 6Saturday, 17 October 2026 · VELTINS-Arena
FC Schalke 04
17th · 6 pts0–1FULL TIME
FSV Mainz 05
9th · 10 pts36% FC
25% Draw
39% FSV
OUR PICK
FSV Mainz 05 to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.59
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.45
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.75X4.0022.59
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.73NG2.25
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.73
GG
58%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
FC Schalke 04FSV Mainz 050.5Goals per game2.1
1.1Conceded per game2.1
0.75Points per game1.25
13%Win rate38%
-5Goal difference0
2Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC Schalke 04 form
LLDLLH RB Leipzig0–2
A Dynamo Dresden2–0
A 1. FC Köln0–0
H FSV Mainz 050–1
A SC Freiburg2–1
FSV Mainz 05 form
LLLWLA SV Elversberg4–1
A VfL Bochum2–0
H Werder Bremen2–3
A FC Schalke 040–1
H Bayer Leverkusen3–4
Head to head
2
FC
2
Draw
1
FSV
Oct 2026FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 050–1
May 2023FSV Mainz 05 – FC Schalke 042–3
Nov 2022FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 051–0
Mar 2021FC Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 050–0
Nov 2020FSV Mainz 05 – FC Schalke 042–2
Bundesliga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Bayern München8+1918
2Borussia Dortmund8+818
3SC Freiburg8+816
4RB Leipzig8+1115
5Werder Bremen8+315
6Bayer Leverkusen8+213
7SV Elversberg8013
8Eintracht Frankfurt8-511
9FSV Mainz 058010
10FC Augsburg8+39
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: FC Schalke 04 36%, the draw 25%, FSV Mainz 05 39%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.40 for FC Schalke 04, 1.45 for FSV Mainz 05), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Schalke 04 sit 17th on 6 points; FSV Mainz 05 are 9th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.