Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 9Tuesday, 13 October 2026 · Ludwigspark-Stadion
FC Saarbrücken
4th · 20 pts2–4FULL TIME
MSV Duisburg
2nd · 26 pts44% FC
21% Draw
36% MSV
OUR PICK
FC Saarbrücken to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.28
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.91
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.28X4.8722.81
Goals 2.5Over1.30Under4.10
Both scoreGG1.33NG3.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.30
Over 2.5
77%
Both teams to score@1.33
GG
75%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
FC SaarbrückenMSV Duisburg2.3Goals per game2.6
1.8Conceded per game1.4
1.67Points per game2.17
50%Win rate67%
7Goal difference14
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
FC Saarbrücken form
WLWLDH Waldhof Mannheim2–1
A Havelse3–2
A Fortuna Düsseldorf1–3
H MSV Duisburg2–4
A Fortuna Köln0–0
MSV Duisburg form
DLDWWH Stuttgart II3–3
A FC Ingolstadt 042–1
H FC Viktoria Köln1–1
A FC Saarbrücken2–4
H Hoffenheim II3–2
Head to head
0
FC
2
Draw
3
MSV
Oct 2026FC Saarbrücken – MSV Duisburg2–4
Mar 2026MSV Duisburg – FC Saarbrücken4–2
Sept 2025FC Saarbrücken – MSV Duisburg0–0
Mar 2024MSV Duisburg – FC Saarbrücken2–0
Nov 2023FC Saarbrücken – MSV Duisburg0–0
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen12+724
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5Alemannia Aachen12+120
6SV Wehen12+618
7FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: FC Saarbrücken 44%, the draw 21%, MSV Duisburg 36%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.28 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.13 for FC Saarbrücken, 1.91 for MSV Duisburg), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Saarbrücken sit 4th on 20 points; MSV Duisburg are 2nd on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.