Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
WORUEFA Champions League · League Stage - 4Wednesday, 4 November 2026
FC Porto
34th · 0 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Napoli
22nd · 3 pts40% FC
23% Draw
38% Napoli
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.66
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.52X4.3922.66
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
FC PortoNapoli0.7Goals per game1.7
2.0Conceded per game2.3
0.00Points per game1.00
0%Win rate33%
-4Goal difference-2
0Form, last 5 (pts)3
FC Porto form
WWWLLH Estoril4–0
H Academico Viseu1–0
A GIL Vicente0–1
H PSV Eindhoven0–1
A Real Betis3–2
Napoli form
DWDWLA Juventus0–0
A Monza1–4
H AS Roma3–3
H Bodo/Glimt4–3
A Venezia1–0
Head to head
0
FC
0
Draw
0
Napoli
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Champions League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Paris Saint Germain3+99
2Aston Villa3+99
3Liverpool3+59
4Real Madrid3+59
5Real Betis3+39
6VfB Stuttgart3+57
7Arsenal3+47
8Barcelona3+56
9Como3+56
10Manchester City3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: FC Porto 40%, the draw 23%, Napoli 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.52 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.71 for FC Porto, 1.66 for Napoli), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Porto sit 34th on 0 points; Napoli are 22nd on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.