Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Estádio do Dragão
FC Porto
1st · 30 pts4–0FULL TIME
Estoril
18th · 2 pts90% FC
8% Draw
2% Estoril
OUR PICK
FC Porto to win
Model probability 90% · fair odds
1.11
Expected goals
3.11 – 0.33
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.11X13.24249.99
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG3.49NG1.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.37
NG
73%
Double chance@1.02
1X
98%
Season stats
FC PortoEstoril2.5Goals per game0.5
0.4Conceded per game1.9
3.00Points per game0.20
100%Win rate0%
21Goal difference-14
15Form, last 5 (pts)0
FC Porto form
WWWLLH Estoril4–0
H Academico Viseu1–0
A GIL Vicente0–1
H PSV Eindhoven0–1
A Real Betis3–2
Estoril form
LLDLLA FC Porto4–0
H Moreirense1–3
A Salgueiros1–1
A Academico Viseu2–1
H Casa Pia1–2
Head to head
5
FC
0
Draw
0
Estoril
Oct 2026FC Porto – Estoril4–0
Apr 2026Estoril – FC Porto1–3
Nov 2025FC Porto – Estoril1–0
Mar 2025Estoril – FC Porto1–2
Nov 2024FC Porto – Estoril4–0
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara9+718
5Arouca9+517
6Academico Viseu9+217
7GIL Vicente9+114
8Moreirense10-414
9Alverca9011
10SC Braga9-211
Match preview
Our model makes FC Porto clear favourites, giving them a 90% chance of winning against 8% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.11 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (3.11 for FC Porto, 0.33 for Estoril), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Porto sit 1st on 30 points; Estoril are 18th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.