Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
PORSegunda Liga · Matchday 8Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes
FC Porto B
16th · 8 pts1–1FULL TIME
União de Leiria
9th · 14 pts24% FC
23% Draw
53% União
OUR PICK
União de Leiria to win
Model probability 53% · fair odds
1.89
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.79
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.17X4.3021.89
Goals 2.5Over1.79Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.77NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.79
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.77
GG
56%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
Season stats
FC Porto BUnião de Leiria0.9Goals per game1.4
1.9Conceded per game1.2
0.89Points per game1.56
22%Win rate44%
-9Goal difference2
5Form, last 5 (pts)8
FC Porto B form
LDWDLA Amarante2–1
H União de Leiria1–1
A Leixoes1–2
H Vizela2–2
A Tondela3–0
União de Leiria form
WDWLWH AVS2–1
A FC Porto B1–1
H Bragança2–1
H Academica0–2
A O Elvas0–2
Head to head
0
FC
4
Draw
1
União
Oct 2026FC Porto B – União de Leiria1–1
Feb 2026União de Leiria – FC Porto B2–2
Sept 2025FC Porto B – União de Leiria1–2
Feb 2025União de Leiria – FC Porto B0–0
Sept 2024FC Porto B – União de Leiria1–1
Segunda Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Sporting CP B9+821
2Lusitânia Lourosa9+719
3Benfica B9+517
4Penafiel8+1016
5Farense9+415
6Academica9+315
7Tondela9+215
8Vizela9+114
9União de Leiria9+214
10AVS9+112
Match preview
Our model makes União de Leiria slight favourites, giving them a 53% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.89 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.13 for FC Porto B, 1.79 for União de Leiria), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Porto B sit 16th on 8 points; União de Leiria are 9th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.