Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Frans Heesen Stadion
FC OSS
15th · 13 pts4–1FULL TIME
MVV
11th · 17 pts51% FC
23% Draw
26% MVV
OUR PICK
FC OSS to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.95
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.26
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.95X4.4023.84
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.66NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.66
GG
60%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
FC OSSMVV1.6Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game2.2
1.08Points per game1.31
33%Win rate38%
-1Goal difference-12
7Form, last 5 (pts)1
FC OSS form
WDLWWA PEC Zwolle1–2
H Jong Ajax3–3
A Den Bosch2–1
H Helmond Sport3–1
H MVV4–1
MVV form
LLDLLH VVV Venlo1–2
H Excelsior0–3
A Den Bosch2–2
H Heracles1–5
A NAC Breda1–0
Head to head
4
FC
1
Draw
0
MVV
Oct 2026FC OSS – MVV4–1
Apr 2026MVV – FC OSS0–2
Aug 2025FC OSS – MVV4–0
Jan 2025FC OSS – MVV1–0
Sept 2024MVV – FC OSS2–2
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC OSS slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.95 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.85 for FC OSS, 1.26 for MVV), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC OSS sit 15th on 13 points; MVV are 11th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.