Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · Frans Heesen Stadion
FC OSS
15th · 13 pts3–3FULL TIME
Jong Ajax
16th · 13 pts55% FC
22% Draw
23% Jong
OUR PICK
FC OSS to win
Model probability 55% · fair odds
1.82
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.18
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.82X4.5424.36
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.69NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.69
GG
59%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
FC OSSJong Ajax1.5Goals per game1.5
1.7Conceded per game2.3
1.00Points per game1.00
31%Win rate23%
-3Goal difference-11
7Form, last 5 (pts)6
FC OSS form
LWDLWA Heracles2–0
A PEC Zwolle1–2
H Jong Ajax3–3
A Den Bosch2–1
H Helmond Sport3–1
Jong Ajax form
DDWLDH Vitesse1–1
A FC OSS3–3
H De Graafschap2–1
H VVV Venlo0–3
H Roda0–0
Head to head
2
FC
3
Draw
0
Jong
Oct 2026FC OSS – Jong Ajax3–3
Apr 2026Jong Ajax – FC OSS1–2
Oct 2025FC OSS – Jong Ajax1–1
May 2025Jong Ajax – FC OSS0–0
Dec 2024FC OSS – Jong Ajax2–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles13+2532
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda13+524
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse13-118
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC OSS clear favourites, giving them a 55% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.82 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.94 for FC OSS, 1.18 for Jong Ajax), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC OSS sit 15th on 13 points; Jong Ajax are 16th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.