Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Frans Heesen Stadion
FC OSS
15th · 13 pts3–1FULL TIME
Helmond Sport
17th · 12 pts46% FC
22% Draw
32% Helmond
OUR PICK
FC OSS to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.58
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X4.5723.15
Goals 2.5Over1.47Under2.95
Both scoreGG1.47NG2.95
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.47
Over 2.5
68%
Both teams to score@1.47
GG
68%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
FC OSSHelmond Sport1.6Goals per game1.8
1.7Conceded per game2.2
1.08Points per game0.92
33%Win rate23%
-1Goal difference-5
7Form, last 5 (pts)4
FC OSS form
WDLWWA PEC Zwolle1–2
H Jong Ajax3–3
A Den Bosch2–1
H Helmond Sport3–1
H MVV4–1
Helmond Sport form
WLLLLH FC Eindhoven3–2
H Willem II3–4
A Jong AZ5–4
H NAC Breda0–2
A FC OSS3–1
Head to head
1
FC
2
Draw
2
Helmond
Oct 2026FC OSS – Helmond Sport3–1
Mar 2026Helmond Sport – FC OSS1–1
Oct 2025FC OSS – Helmond Sport0–3
Feb 2025FC OSS – Helmond Sport1–1
Sept 2024Helmond Sport – FC OSS1–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes FC OSS slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.5 goals in total (1.94 for FC OSS, 1.58 for Helmond Sport), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC OSS sit 15th on 13 points; Helmond Sport are 17th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.