Over 1.5 goals@1.47
Over 1.5
68%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 5 November 2026 · MCH Arena
FC Midtjylland
25th · 1 pts18:45KICK-OFF WAT
Ajax
13th · 3 pts35% FC
28% Draw
37% Ajax
OUR PICK
Ajax to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.71
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.19
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.86X3.5622.71
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.71
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.91
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.71
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.91
NG
52%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
FC MidtjyllandAjax0.5Goals per game1.5
1.0Conceded per game1.0
0.50Points per game1.50
0%Win rate50%
-1Goal difference1
1Form, last 5 (pts)3
FC Midtjylland form
WWWLWA FC Nordsjaelland2–3
H Odense2–1
H Lyngby3–2
H St. Truiden0–1
A Viborg1–2
Ajax form
WWWWLH AZ Alkmaar1–0
A Sparta Rotterdam1–2
H Atalanta2–0
A Groningen2–5
A HNK Hajduk Split2–1
Head to head
0
FC
0
Draw
2
Ajax
Nov 2020Ajax – FC Midtjylland3–1
Nov 2020FC Midtjylland – Ajax1–2
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: FC Midtjylland 35%, the draw 28%, Ajax 37%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.15 for FC Midtjylland, 1.19 for Ajax), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Midtjylland sit 25th on 1 points; Ajax are 13th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.