Over 1.5 goals@1.06
Over 1.5
94%
WORUEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Thursday, 5 November 2026 · AIL Arena
FC Lugano
2nd · 6 pts21:00KICK-OFF WAT
Kauno Žalgiris
36th · 0 pts80% FC
11% Draw
8% Kauno
OUR PICK
FC Lugano to win
Model probability 80% · fair odds
1.25
Expected goals
3.50 – 1.15
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.25X8.91211.80
Goals 2.5Over1.19Under5.90
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.19
Over 2.5
84%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.09
1X
92%
Season stats
FC LuganoKauno Žalgiris4.0Goals per game0.5
2.0Conceded per game4.0
3.00Points per game0.00
100%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-7
6Form, last 5 (pts)0
FC Lugano form
WWWWWH FC Basel 18932–1
A FC Thun2–3
A Getafe2–5
A Pully Football0–4
H FK Crvena Zvezda3–2
Kauno Žalgiris form
WDLWLA Hegelmann Litauen1–4
H FK Zalgiris Vilnius0–0
H Brann1–4
A Suduva Marijampole0–1
A Brighton4–0
Head to head
0
FC
0
Draw
0
Kauno
These sides haven't met recently.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Panathinaikos2+56
2FC Lugano2+46
3Brann2+46
4Trabzonspor2+46
5Twente2+46
6Monaco2+46
7St. Truiden2+36
8HNK Hajduk Split2+26
9Brighton2+44
10FC Copenhagen2+34
Match preview
Our model makes FC Lugano clear favourites, giving them a 80% chance of winning against 11% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.7 goals in total (3.50 for FC Lugano, 1.15 for Kauno Žalgiris), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
FC Lugano sit 2nd on 6 points; Kauno Žalgiris are 36th on 0.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.